{
 "name": "The Podcast Summary predictions board",
 "generated": "2026-09-30",
 "method": "A prediction here is a call about the future that someone on a show made in their own words, specific enough that anyone can later check it against public facts. Most come with a time frame. Every quote is the episode transcript's own words, checked word by word by our code before it appears, with a link to the moment it was said. Transcripts come from captions, so a word can be off. The bold line on each card is our plain summary of the call. A model drafts it from the quote, and code checks its numbers against the transcript. The quote is the record. We credit the show and the episode. Our transcripts do not reliably tell us who is speaking, so we never name a speaker. The deadline is the last day the call can still come true. A call for a year, like \"in 2027\", runs to December 31 of that year. Calls with no clear date sit in their own list. We date each episode by the Sunday that ends its week, so a deadline worked out from words like \"within two months\" can land up to six days late. Once the outcome is clear, we look up what actually happened in a primary source and grade the call as right, wrong, partly right, or not settled, with a link to that evidence. No call is graded from the quote alone. We show a show's hit rate only after at least 5 of its calls are graded right, wrong, or partly right. Some shows make many more calls than others, so a few shows fill much of the board. Our regular coverage starts in April 2026, plus a few earlier episodes. These are the shows' calls, kept for the record. Nothing here is investment advice.",
 "counts": {
  "predictions": 51,
  "episodes_scanned": 484,
  "shows": 9,
  "open": 31,
  "due_ungraded": 0,
  "graded_approved": 5,
  "no_date": 15
 },
 "predictions": [
  {
   "id": "4db733fdf1a0",
   "show": "TBPN",
   "episode_id": "aZN8Jy0akYg",
   "episode_title": "North Korea’s Secret US Workforce, Canceling the SaaSpocalypse, MSL’s Latest Exits | Diet TBPN",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-16",
   "claim": "More people will leave Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL) by mid-October 2026.",
   "quote": "I don't think this will be the last of the exits that we see out of MSL over the next even one or two months.",
   "seconds": 630,
   "time_frame": "over the next even one or two months",
   "deadline": "2026-10-16",
   "kind": "event",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#4db733fdf1a0"
  },
  {
   "id": "175386d5db13",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "fpC4sbawSzQ",
   "episode_title": "OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze",
   "episode_date": "2026-05-03",
   "claim": "Every leading frontier AI model will match the cyber attack skills of Anthropic's Mythos by early November 2026.",
   "quote": "In fact, within 6 months or so, all the Frontier models are going to have Mythos level cyber capability.",
   "seconds": 1256,
   "time_frame": "within 6 months or so",
   "deadline": "2026-11-03",
   "kind": "product",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#175386d5db13"
  },
  {
   "id": "4ed8c1ecda73",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "fpC4sbawSzQ",
   "episode_title": "OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze",
   "episode_date": "2026-05-03",
   "claim": "Chinese AI models will match the cyber attack skills of Anthropic's Mythos by early November 2026.",
   "quote": "It's just it's really important to understand that the Chinese models are going to have these capabilities within approximately 6 months.",
   "seconds": 1482,
   "time_frame": "within approximately 6 months",
   "deadline": "2026-11-03",
   "kind": "product",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#4ed8c1ecda73"
  },
  {
   "id": "187ec08a9494",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "10MdOvK-aG4",
   "episode_title": "Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom",
   "episode_date": "2026-05-10",
   "claim": "Renting SpaceX's data center capacity to Anthropic will add $4 billion to $5 billion to SpaceX's 2026 revenue.",
   "quote": "And so I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental 4 to5 billion of revenue on top of what I I've seen analysts estimates in the mid20s.",
   "seconds": 580,
   "time_frame": "in this year",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#187ec08a9494"
  },
  {
   "id": "3c9243840ea7",
   "show": "TBPN",
   "episode_id": "NmJgJWmJNZQ",
   "episode_title": "OpenAI Cracks Navier-Stokes, Tech Trailers, AI Jobs Apocalypse on Hold | Diet TBPN",
   "episode_date": "2026-09-13",
   "claim": "AI labs will solve the remaining Millennium Prize math problems before the end of 2026.",
   "quote": "I think that uh the Millennium Prizes will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week.",
   "seconds": 562,
   "time_frame": "probably this year",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "kind": "event",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#3c9243840ea7"
  },
  {
   "id": "62647321d307",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "yEb2DX0TzKM",
   "episode_title": "All-In's 2026 Predictions",
   "episode_date": "2026-01-04",
   "claim": "Russia and Ukraine will reach a settlement that ends the war before the end of 2026.",
   "quote": "Uh Russia Ukraine I think it's going to settle out this year. I think there's a lot of motivating factors to get it settled out this year.",
   "seconds": 3079,
   "time_frame": "this year",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "kind": "event",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#62647321d307"
  },
  {
   "id": "d99a65f8723f",
   "show": "TBPN",
   "episode_id": "w1aTrmUxpYs",
   "episode_title": "Stripe x PayPal, Codex Micro, Saagar Enjeti Joins",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-19",
   "claim": "Spending on data centers will be about $700 billion in 2026.",
   "quote": "And I think this year it's going to be a 700 billion dollar capex sector.",
   "seconds": 6668,
   "time_frame": "this year",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#d99a65f8723f"
  },
  {
   "id": "e3d2aff3f2ba",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "10MdOvK-aG4",
   "episode_title": "Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom",
   "episode_date": "2026-05-10",
   "claim": "Anthropic will reach roughly $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026.",
   "quote": "I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will hit that forecast of 10x this year exiting the year. Call it roughly 100 billion of ARR.",
   "seconds": 907,
   "time_frame": "this year exiting the year",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#e3d2aff3f2ba"
  },
  {
   "id": "ed4464cf0c3c",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "yEb2DX0TzKM",
   "episode_title": "All-In's 2026 Predictions",
   "episode_date": "2026-01-04",
   "claim": "In 2026, oil will fall to $45 a barrel before it rises to $65.",
   "quote": "where does it see $65 or $45? And I would say on on a per barrel basis, and I think it's more likely to see 45 than 65.",
   "seconds": 4301,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "kind": "market",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#ed4464cf0c3c"
  },
  {
   "id": "f71dd9187a4a",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "1bCXCxrDsCs",
   "episode_title": "SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike",
   "episode_date": "2026-04-19",
   "claim": "SpaceX's xAI and Cursor will have the top-ranked AI coding model by April 2027.",
   "quote": "If you put these two together I predict that this is going to move SpaceX xAI and cursor to the front of the coding leaderboard within 12 months.",
   "seconds": 418,
   "time_frame": "within 12 months",
   "deadline": "2027-04-19",
   "kind": "product",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#f71dd9187a4a"
  },
  {
   "id": "44dfc8da3829",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "10MdOvK-aG4",
   "episode_title": "Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom",
   "episode_date": "2026-05-10",
   "claim": "Tesla and SpaceX will merge by the end of June 2027.",
   "quote": "And by the way, I'll just say it again, when Tesla and SpaceX merge and we have all things Elon and Elon Corp, okay, which will happen probably by the end of the year. Maybe it'll happen in the middle of next year.",
   "seconds": 1484,
   "time_frame": "probably by the end of the year. Maybe it'll happen in the middle of next year",
   "deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "kind": "event",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#44dfc8da3829"
  },
  {
   "id": "421f90b97b14",
   "show": "How I Invest",
   "episode_id": "NdjIHI7ms2M",
   "episode_title": "Why Every VC Is Suddenly Investing in Defense",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-16",
   "claim": "Congress will set the next US defense budget below the $1.5 trillion proposed in 2026.",
   "quote": "This year they're talking about a $ 1.5 trillion budget. I don't think they'll quite get there but quite large.",
   "seconds": 235,
   "time_frame": "This year",
   "deadline": "2027-09-30",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#421f90b97b14"
  },
  {
   "id": "05ea4df36fed",
   "show": "My First Million",
   "episode_id": "3JNYPOS2o5Q",
   "episode_title": "4 wild AI predictions from a $39B tech founder",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-16",
   "claim": "By the end of 2027, AI voices will pass a full Turing test on phone calls, so people cannot tell an AI caller from a human.",
   "quote": "certainly in 2027 you will hit like a full human touring test with speech. You'll be able to take a phone call from an AI system on your phone and I'll be able to fool you guys. I'll be able to have like a human call you and a robot call you and I don't think you guys will be...",
   "seconds": 2301,
   "time_frame": "in 2027",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "kind": "product",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#05ea4df36fed"
  },
  {
   "id": "49b754bf6fe4",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "w8ah_tA0yfg",
   "episode_title": "Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter",
   "episode_date": "2026-06-28",
   "claim": "DRAM will account for 30% to 40% of all hyperscaler capital expenditures in 2027.",
   "quote": "Something I've been thinking about memory is DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler capex next year.",
   "seconds": 3964,
   "time_frame": "next year",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#49b754bf6fe4"
  },
  {
   "id": "58c019996951",
   "show": "How I Invest",
   "episode_id": "LadWMOzx4mw",
   "episode_title": "How AI is Changing the Private & Public Markets",
   "episode_date": "2026-09-27",
   "claim": "Hyperscaler capex investment will increase in 2027 compared to 2026.",
   "quote": "The amount of money that's being invested when you think about just the hyperscaler investment today, if you add up hypers scale investment this year, it's around 70% of total corporate US capex. It's an enormous number and it's probably going to increase next year too.",
   "seconds": 400,
   "time_frame": "next year",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#58c019996951"
  },
  {
   "id": "5fa95c027da7",
   "show": "TBPN",
   "episode_id": "jf_AXc-VuYY",
   "episode_title": "5.6 Stories, Meta Bull Case, Phia Affiliate Drama, Movies and Mansions",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-12",
   "claim": "There will be an insider trading scandal involving Love Island prediction markets before the end of 2027.",
   "quote": "I I think almost certainly there will be an insider trading scandal on the Love Island prediction markets by the end of uh 2027 is my prediction.",
   "seconds": 4780,
   "time_frame": "by the end of uh 2027",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "kind": "event",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#5fa95c027da7"
  },
  {
   "id": "9ce23f51032a",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "jJRAvZNGUvI",
   "episode_title": "Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: \"Not My First SaaSpocalypse,\" OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño",
   "episode_date": "2026-05-17",
   "claim": "2026 or 2027 will be the hottest year on record worldwide, by a wide margin.",
   "quote": "And over the next few months, that energy is going to be released into the atmosphere. And that will absolutely 99% confidence that will make the upcoming year the hottest year on record by far that humans have ever experienced or at least that we've experienced in recent history where we didn't have data going going back a long time.",
   "seconds": 3877,
   "time_frame": "the upcoming year",
   "deadline": "2027-12-31",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#9ce23f51032a"
  },
  {
   "id": "fb614f1f16a9",
   "show": "Odd Lots",
   "episode_id": "rss2b8ec2a2",
   "episode_title": "Robert Friedland on the World's Monumental Shortage of Copper",
   "episode_date": "2026-09-13",
   "claim": "The copper ore grade at Chile's Escondida mine will fall to 0.4 percent by September 2028.",
   "quote": "It belongs to Rio Tinto and BHP, the largest mining companies in the world in the western world, but within two years, the grade is going to drop to 0.4 of 1%.",
   "seconds": 1493,
   "time_frame": "within two years",
   "deadline": "2028-09-12",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#fb614f1f16a9"
  },
  {
   "id": "7b83d928e145",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "1u5dMAKl_ks",
   "episode_title": "Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-30",
   "claim": "The US national debt will grow by about $10 trillion during Donald Trump's second term (January 2025 to January 2029).",
   "quote": "So we're adding 2.5 trillion a year. We'll add 10 trillion during this second uh Trump term.",
   "seconds": 2073,
   "time_frame": "during this second uh Trump term",
   "deadline": "2029-01-20",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#7b83d928e145"
  },
  {
   "id": "008e69360bac",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "jLICvWE7w2Q",
   "episode_title": "The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel",
   "episode_date": "2026-06-07",
   "claim": "The cost to launch cargo into orbit will fall to $200 to $300 per kilogram by June 2029.",
   "quote": "Now we're about $1,000 a kilogram, just over that in right today. Uh but that's come down about 10x in the last 10 years. Um on the current trajectory with Starship in particular, I would expect it the launch cost come down there in 2 to 3 years.",
   "seconds": 950,
   "time_frame": "in 2 to 3 years",
   "deadline": "2029-06-07",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#008e69360bac"
  },
  {
   "id": "b52c7baf6705",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "wgdxSCsmS-Q",
   "episode_title": "AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-05",
   "claim": "The price of AI tokens will fall about 90% a year from mid-2026 to mid-2029.",
   "quote": "The cost of tokens, Freeberg, is going to go down 90% a year for the next 3 years. You're going to be able to buy a thousand times as many tokens that are more intelligent because you're going to have free options.",
   "seconds": 1822,
   "time_frame": "for the next 3 years",
   "deadline": "2029-07-05",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#b52c7baf6705"
  },
  {
   "id": "555826abb408",
   "show": "20VC with Harry Stebbings",
   "episode_id": "jX-Uq8JJ_j8",
   "episode_title": "⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-12",
   "claim": "Most enterprise AI workloads will run on open-source models by July 2029.",
   "quote": "I believe that majority majority of uh uh enterprise workloads will actually be on open source models uh in 3 years for sure.",
   "seconds": 1041,
   "time_frame": "in 3 years",
   "deadline": "2029-07-12",
   "kind": "market",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#555826abb408"
  },
  {
   "id": "90e48709b774",
   "show": "20VC with Harry Stebbings",
   "episode_id": "R1336Jyb-qk",
   "episode_title": "The AI Bubble WILL Burst | Should we be fearful of Chinese Open-Source | Jerry Murdock",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-23",
   "claim": "At least half of today's neocloud companies will be gone, through shutdown or sale, by August 2029.",
   "quote": "Let's take NeoClouds. Neoclouds right now, there's a whole bunch of them. I think at least half of them go away within 36 months, but that and if there's an an economic disruption, a lot of them go away right away.",
   "seconds": 484,
   "time_frame": "within 36 months",
   "deadline": "2029-08-23",
   "kind": "event",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#90e48709b774"
  },
  {
   "id": "04a5133ff143",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "-ILKiOU5iAQ",
   "episode_title": "Former Intel CEO on What Went Wrong, What's Next + Lovable CEO on the Real Promise of Vibe Coding",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-19",
   "claim": "Quantum computers will produce results ordinary computers cannot match, in several industries, by the end of 2029.",
   "quote": "this decade we will see quantum supremacy uh results across multiple industries you know we know how to build cubits we know how to error correct cubits we now have algorithmics right against uh quantum and you know now it's just about engineering scale.",
   "seconds": 1409,
   "time_frame": "this decade",
   "deadline": "2029-12-31",
   "kind": "event",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#04a5133ff143"
  },
  {
   "id": "99817e9e8556",
   "show": "20VC with Harry Stebbings",
   "episode_id": "qrxQikecJL0",
   "episode_title": "Aaron Levie",
   "episode_date": "2026-04-19",
   "claim": "There will be more lawyers in April 2031 than in April 2026.",
   "quote": "there are going to be more lawyers in the next 5 years than we have today because we've made it easy to generate legal content. But it has not gotten any easier to actually get any of that approved by any court system or file a patent or any of the things that law actually ends up relating to.",
   "seconds": 445,
   "time_frame": "in the next 5 years",
   "deadline": "2031-04-19",
   "kind": "numeric",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#99817e9e8556"
  },
  {
   "id": "b07900a22b4b",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "1u5dMAKl_ks",
   "episode_title": "Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-30",
   "claim": "Between 2030 and 2032, Social Security's trust fund will run out and many US states will be unable to pay what they owe.",
   "quote": "Then the next big thing is going to happen around 2030 to 2032. And that's really where Social Security doesn't have any money to pay anymore. And I think during that era is also when a lot of the states are going to become bankrupt. We're not going to be able to pay their obligations.",
   "seconds": 3086,
   "time_frame": "around 2030 to 2032",
   "deadline": "2032-12-31",
   "kind": "event",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#b07900a22b4b"
  },
  {
   "id": "fb0d81089366",
   "show": "20VC with Harry Stebbings",
   "episode_id": "s61XVZAt5ns",
   "episode_title": "Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead?",
   "episode_date": "2026-04-19",
   "claim": "The $60 billion Cursor acquisition deal will remain the largest private M&A transaction for the next decade.",
   "quote": "I think this will stand as the high water mark of private M&A for a decade. There. I'll take the other.",
   "seconds": 1440,
   "time_frame": "for a decade",
   "deadline": "2036-04-19",
   "kind": "market",
   "status": "open",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#fb0d81089366"
  },
  {
   "id": "880e8b0cdb35",
   "show": "Huberman Lab",
   "episode_id": "sQcS6f2qYoQ",
   "episode_title": "Male Roles, Obligations and Options for Building a Fulfilling Life | Scott Galloway",
   "episode_date": "2026-04-26",
   "claim": "By April 2036, half of all US federal spending will go to people over 65.",
   "quote": "40% of all government spending is going to people over the age of 65. It's going to be 50% within 10 years.",
   "seconds": 7372,
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   "deadline": "2036-04-26",
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   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "jLICvWE7w2Q",
   "episode_title": "The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel",
   "episode_date": "2026-06-07",
   "claim": "By June 2036, most of the world's computing capacity will be in space.",
   "quote": "but I think no question within 10 years most compute will be putting in space, which to give you a sense is a lot of money, like trillions, and um will be bigger than any of the other space businesses today.",
   "seconds": 1057,
   "time_frame": "within 10 years",
   "deadline": "2036-06-07",
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   "episode_title": "AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-05",
   "claim": "By July 2036, no package sorting or package delivery will be done by humans.",
   "quote": "every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10 years. And it's starting today.",
   "seconds": 2864,
   "time_frame": "in 10 years",
   "deadline": "2036-07-05",
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   "show": "No Priors",
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   "episode_title": "Building an Autonomous Delivery Experience with DoorDash Co-Founders Andy Fang and Stanley Tang",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-26",
   "claim": "DoorDash will have more Dashers in 2036 than the more than 9 million it had in 2026.",
   "quote": "Well, my take, my prediction actually is in a world where robotics, drones, AI is is everywhere. Uh my guess is that in 10 years time, we're actually going to have more Dashers doing doing deliveries, not less.",
   "seconds": 2701,
   "time_frame": "in 10 years time",
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   "episode_title": "All-In's 2026 Predictions",
   "episode_date": "2026-01-04",
   "claim": "In 2026, SpaceX will merge into Tesla through a reverse merger instead of going public.",
   "quote": "My contrarian belief number one is I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.",
   "seconds": 3628,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
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   "evidence_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/12/spacex-ipo-closes-up-19-and-delivers-the-worlds-first-trillionaire/",
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#f0753afb1e07"
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   "episode_title": "All-In's 2026 Predictions",
   "episode_date": "2026-01-04",
   "claim": "At least two of SpaceX, Anduril, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI will file for an IPO, publicly or confidentially, in 2026.",
   "quote": "SpaceX, Andro, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI. I think two of those file and it is going to be gang busters.",
   "seconds": 4829,
   "time_frame": "this year",
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   "kind": "event",
   "status": "graded",
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   "evidence_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/08/following-anthropic-openai-files-confidentially-for-ipo/",
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   "episode_title": "All-In's 2026 Predictions",
   "episode_date": "2026-01-04",
   "claim": "A deal worth $50 billion or more to buy an AI company, outright or through a licensing deal, will be announced in 2026.",
   "quote": "you know for 2026 I think we're going to see some massive M&A. It doesn't matter to me how it occurs but I do think we're going to see a 50 billion plus deal.",
   "seconds": 3226,
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   "grade": "right",
   "evidence_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/16/spacex-to-acquire-cursor-for-60b-in-stock-days-after-blockbuster-ipo/",
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#21014a7b5fd9"
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   "episode_title": "All-In's 2026 Predictions",
   "episode_date": "2026-01-04",
   "claim": "The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more than once between January and the end of June 2026.",
   "quote": "And by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts, possibly 75 to 100 basis points.",
   "seconds": 866,
   "time_frame": "by June",
   "deadline": "2026-06-30",
   "kind": "market",
   "status": "graded",
   "grade": "wrong",
   "evidence_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm",
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#2daf351a40b1"
  },
  {
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   "show": "20VC with Harry Stebbings",
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   "episode_title": "Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead?",
   "episode_date": "2026-04-19",
   "claim": "SpaceX will use its option to buy Cursor for $60 billion, and the purchase will close.",
   "quote": "it's one of those deals that makes sense for both sides, which is why I think it'll close, right? Which is different than saying it makes full financial sense.",
   "seconds": 274,
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   "deadline": null,
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   "evidence_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/15/spacex-officially-closes-its-cursor-acquisition/",
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#62d826c1cbcc"
  },
  {
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   "show": "TBPN",
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   "episode_title": "Jobs Boom, Astra Reactions, Cybercab Roll Out, The Dyson Debate",
   "episode_date": "2026-09-06",
   "claim": "Tesla will ship the Cybercab before shipping the Roadster.",
   "quote": "it is crazy that I'm in a world where I think they're going to ship CyberCap before Roadster cuz they announced Roadster a decade ago.",
   "seconds": 3495,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": null,
   "kind": "product",
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   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#bbcc1a31214c"
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   "show": "All-In Podcast",
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   "episode_title": "Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-23",
   "claim": "New York, Boston, and Washington, D.C. will ban Waymo autonomous vehicles and restrict them using licenses.",
   "quote": "And that's where you're going to see, I will predict it now. They're going to ban Whimos in New York, Boston, DC, and they're going to limit them with licenses.",
   "seconds": 2217,
   "time_frame": "",
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   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#2555267ab6fd"
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   "episode_title": "Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-16",
   "claim": "New York City and New Jersey will win their lawsuits against Amazon over its delivery contractor program.",
   "quote": "And you know what? Mandami and New Jersey are going to win these lawsuits. I predicted now.",
   "seconds": 5185,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": null,
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   "show": "TBPN",
   "episode_id": "JAg8MM5onsE",
   "episode_title": "Half a Trilly, AI Text Watermarks, Paramount Threatens to Bounce, Leo Defends Chilean Frogs",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-16",
   "claim": "The Supreme Court will agree to hear a case on whether states or the CFTC regulate sports contracts on prediction markets.",
   "quote": "but more courts are going to weigh in. I I bet that goes to the Supreme Court. And so we'll see, you know, the future of of sports contract.",
   "seconds": 6722,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": null,
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   "id": "6fd0836dd653",
   "show": "Private Equity Funcast",
   "episode_id": "DNhhXGGEtSg",
   "episode_title": "Another False Start: PitchBook's H1 2026 Private Equity Data (w/ Steven Buibish)",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-16",
   "claim": "The Federal Reserve's next interest rate change after mid-August 2026 will be an increase.",
   "quote": "We're probably going to get a rate increase, not a rate cut.",
   "seconds": 2886,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": null,
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   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#6fd0836dd653"
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   "id": "4f045dd92d3c",
   "show": "20VC with Harry Stebbings",
   "episode_id": "b_VUAev1Lmc",
   "episode_title": "Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market",
   "episode_date": "2026-08-09",
   "claim": "ElevenLabs will become a publicly traded company.",
   "quote": "I think 11 Labs 11 Labs is going to be a public company dude",
   "seconds": 2537,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": null,
   "kind": "event",
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   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
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  {
   "id": "f97d926a87c6",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "9IMwRIei-Xc",
   "episode_title": "Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-19",
   "claim": "The United States Congress will launch an investigation into Chinese influence operations targeting US AI data centers.",
   "quote": "It makes sense. It makes a lot of sense. and there's going to be a congressional investigation of this. It does make sense cuz it is in their interest",
   "seconds": 4531,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": null,
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   "evidence_url": null,
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  {
   "id": "2e3b51e078b8",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "9IMwRIei-Xc",
   "episode_title": "Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-19",
   "claim": "The final acquisition price for PayPal will be 10% to 15% higher than the initial $60 per share offer.",
   "quote": "The other thing is this is probably not the final clearing price. I think the price is probably another 10 to 15% higher from here.",
   "seconds": 1659,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": null,
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   "evidence_url": null,
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  {
   "id": "7eb306346871",
   "show": "20VC with Harry Stebbings",
   "episode_id": "LUkbZHSQIog",
   "episode_title": "Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-12",
   "claim": "Kling, the AI video company, will list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.",
   "quote": "Is the biggest AI video business in the world. Uh it's doing 500 million in Q1 AR wise. Um, it's clearly going to go public on the Hong Kong stock exchange soon.",
   "seconds": 3014,
   "time_frame": "soon",
   "deadline": null,
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   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#7eb306346871"
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  {
   "id": "22ec2e781744",
   "show": "TBPN",
   "episode_id": "QRHHHHmmE5Q",
   "episode_title": "Fable Unbanned, Lab Nationalization, End of Paper-Based Retirement, SpaceX Phone",
   "episode_date": "2026-07-05",
   "claim": "The United States government will not enact a ban on open-source AI models.",
   "quote": "I don't think the US is going to do an open source ban. Um I I I I would be surprised by that.",
   "seconds": 6357,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": null,
   "kind": "policy",
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   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#22ec2e781744"
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  {
   "id": "c368cb380712",
   "show": "TBPN",
   "episode_id": "XbcAb0MdQ90",
   "episode_title": "Cannes Recap, Meta Gambling Goggles, AI Restrictions, Apple Price Hikes",
   "episode_date": "2026-06-28",
   "claim": "Meta will release an ad-supported version of its smart glasses.",
   "quote": "I would expect to see just like we saw the ad supported Kindle. I think we'll see the ad supported meta glasses.",
   "seconds": 1938,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": null,
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   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#c368cb380712"
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  {
   "id": "9e6afb0f2c3c",
   "show": "20VC with Harry Stebbings",
   "episode_id": "Z3nyCnsMMog",
   "episode_title": "How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong",
   "episode_date": "2026-06-28",
   "claim": "Revolut will achieve a higher valuation than Robinhood at its next funding round.",
   "quote": "It's our fintech provider Revolute which has stolen the show and I think on the next round will be considerably more valuable than Robin Hood.",
   "seconds": 2677,
   "time_frame": "on the next round",
   "deadline": null,
   "kind": "market",
   "status": "no_date",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#9e6afb0f2c3c"
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  {
   "id": "0fb738522a6f",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "3Amlu4y94Ho",
   "episode_title": "World's First Trillionaire, Anthropic Fable Banned, The New Oligarchs, Iran Peace Deal",
   "episode_date": "2026-06-21",
   "claim": "Elon Musk will hold onto his SpaceX shares beyond his one-year lockup period.",
   "quote": "And he's not selling. He's under a one-year lockup. And I predict that he'll hold on for much longer than that because creating SpaceX is his life's work.",
   "seconds": 1162,
   "time_frame": "much longer than that",
   "deadline": null,
   "kind": "event",
   "status": "no_date",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#0fb738522a6f"
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  {
   "id": "ba57eb5b3cb0",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "hObRMv6qCi0",
   "episode_title": "Palo Alto Networks CEO: \"AI Found 5 Years of Bugs in 6 Weeks\"",
   "episode_date": "2026-06-14",
   "claim": "Google (Alphabet) will become the first company to achieve a market capitalization of ten trillion dollars.",
   "quote": "I think Google's underrated. I think it's going to be the first 10 trillion dollar company in our lifetime. I think they have all the assets that are that are needed to make this successful.",
   "seconds": 1298,
   "time_frame": "in our lifetime",
   "deadline": null,
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   "status": "no_date",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#ba57eb5b3cb0"
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  {
   "id": "31872762928f",
   "show": "All-In Podcast",
   "episode_id": "xTO1aQ_m44I",
   "episode_title": "Dan Dreyfus: The Next AI Bottleneck is Copper",
   "episode_date": "2026-06-14",
   "claim": "The price of copper will double from its June 2026 level.",
   "quote": "Well, you know, I I think the copper price is easily going to double from here. I mean, I've seen I've seen malibdinum go from a dollar a pound to $33 a pound. So, a double is no big deal.",
   "seconds": 820,
   "time_frame": "",
   "deadline": null,
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   "status": "no_date",
   "grade": null,
   "evidence_url": null,
   "url": "https://www.thepodcastsummary.com/predictions/#31872762928f"
  }
 ]
}