Key Takeaways
- The current AI boom eerily echoes the late 90s dot-com bubble, complete with “massive shifts in market cap” and a “planet explosion of new things,” warns Booking Holdings CEO Glenn Fogel.
- Just like the internet era, the AI wave will bring “a great deal of disappointment” and many will “lose a lot of money,” highlighting the speculative nature of such booms.
- Fogel's experience joining Priceline during its dramatic market cap drop offers a unique perspective on navigating post-bubble corrections and rebuilding value.
- Founders must critically assess their core motivation: “Is your goal to actually make something that matters or are you just here to make money?” This clarity is vital for strategic decisions during boom cycles.
The Echo of Bubbles: Dot-Com's Warning for AI
Late in the '90s, when the internet promised to remake everything, optimism soared. Markets swelled. Companies launched overnight. Then, the bubble burst. Elad Gil points to this era, asking Glenn Fogel, the CEO of Booking Holdings, about the parallels with today's AI surge. Fogel, who joined Priceline during its dramatic market cap plunge and subsequent recovery, sees the same forces at play.
“You think like this is a planet explosion of new things of all these new coming everything just like in the late '90s,” Fogel says. “The optimism of technology was thought everything is going to be wonderful.” He notes the current scale is even grander: “The numbers are much bigger, the issues at hand are much bigger, the pluses and the minuses.”
Fogel knows the sting of a market correction firsthand. Priceline, once riding high, saw its valuation collapse. He helped steer it through that storm. From that vantage point, he offers a sober warning: high hopes in technological booms inevitably lead to widespread failure. “There'll be a great deal of disappointment. There'll be a lot of people who are going to lose a lot of money, of course. That's just the nature of how our economy works and when there spectacular bubbles.” He won't guess the success-to-failure ratio this time, but he makes it clear: the bust is coming for many.
Beyond the Hype: What Are You Really Building?
It is easy to get swept up in the market's enthusiasm, building for the next funding round or a quick acquisition. But Fogel suggests that the real defense against the inevitable disappointment of a boom-bust cycle lies in a founder's core motivation. He pushes past the superficial "what" and asks a direct "why": “Your goal is to actually make something that matters or are you just here to make money?”
This isn't a judgment. Fogel himself states, “Nothing wrong with that.” The point is self-awareness. If your primary driver is financial return, your strategy will differ dramatically from someone genuinely obsessed with solving a problem of lasting value. The former might chase trends, optimize for short-term metrics, and seek a fast exit. The latter is more likely to dig in, build resilience, and weather the storms because their "why" transcends market cycles.
Understanding your true motivation becomes your compass. It dictates whether you continue building through a tough market or strategically pivot to an exit. In an era where "massive market cap shifts" can vanish overnight, knowing what you're fundamentally trying to achieve is your most powerful strategic tool.
What to Do With This
This week, pause. Open a document and draft your 3-year vision if no one ever invested another dollar. Then, list your top three reasons for building this company, beyond financial returns. If those reasons feel shallow or disappear without external funding, your 'why' is built on quicksand. Realign your immediate strategic sprints around what truly matters, not just what the market is hyping.