Most founders look to public markets for a read on the economy, watching the Magnificent Seven. But what if the real action, and the future of market dominance, is hidden in private companies? Thomas Laffont from Coatue thinks it is. He presented an index of what he calls the 'Magnificent Eight' private companies, revealing a market shift that should change how you think about growth, talent, and where capital is flowing.
The Invisible Giants Crushing Public Tech
Forget the public market darlings for a second. Laffont introduced a collection of eight private companies—SpaceX, Stripe, Anthropic, ByteDance, Databricks, Revolut, and Anduril—that collectively represent nearly $4 trillion in value. These aren't just big; Laffont notes this group “has really crushed the traditional kind of Mac 7,” referring to the public Magnificent Seven tech stocks. This isn't theoretical; it’s a direct challenge to the idea that market leadership is best measured by public valuations. These private players, with their diverse business models from space exploration to payments and defense tech, are moving the needle in ways the broader market isn't yet fully accounting for.
AI's Unprecedented Velocity
The real jaw-dropper, however, comes from the AI players within this private 'Magnificent Eight.' Laffont highlighted companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, revealing growth rates that are, by historical standards, off the charts. “Anthropic in particular is scaling like no other company that we've ever seen,” Laffont stated. Within just a year and a half, these AI leaders have not only hit but surpassed the scale of established enterprise software giants like Workday, ServiceNow, Adobe, and Salesforce. Think about that: decades of building for these public companies, matched and exceeded by AI in under two years. This kind of velocity isn't just fast; it’s a complete redefinition of what 'scale' means for a technology company.
A New Order by 2028
The implications of this AI growth are stark. Laffont shared a projection that sounds almost unbelievable: these AI leaders, despite significant investment from hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft into their own AI efforts, could exceed AWS by the end of this year. And by 2028, he projects they could surpass all of Microsoft. This isn't just about market cap; it's about revenue, customer adoption, and ultimately, influence. If Laffont is right, the tech landscape will see a dramatic reordering of its titans within the next five years, driven almost entirely by the concentrated power and velocity of a few key AI companies.
What to Do With This
If you’re building an AI company: Re-evaluate your 5-year revenue projections. Are they still anchored to pre-AI growth curves? Map out a scenario where you achieve Anthropic-like velocity and what resources (talent, capital, infrastructure) that demands. Raise your ambition.
If you’re building in another sector: Review your top 10 engineering talent for retention risk. Assume AI companies will offer 2-3x their current compensation next year. What's your counter-narrative beyond salary to keep them engaged, or how will you integrate AI talent to stay competitive?