The 12-Year Unicorn & The Death of Gut-Driven Sales

The Carry · July 26th. 6 min 8 sec.

Cold open

Twelve years. That’s the average age of a unicorn in the US right now. Think about that. We’re staring down a massive liquidity backlog, with AI completely upending how we value software assets. Your old models? They’re failing. AI is tearing through valuation benchmarks, disrupting industries and leaving non-AI software companies in what one expert calls a 'cis-apocalypse.' Survival means understanding this new reality, right now.

Intro

This is The Carry for July 26th. Every single week, I dive deep into the top private equity podcasts, compress the insights, and pull out what truly signals where the market is headed. I went through the latest releases so you do not have to. Here is what actually mattered this week. I’m West.

Valuation and risk models fail

The week's most urgent signal: your historic valuation and risk models are failing. They are actively failing. Luis Laboy at the Hewlett Foundation sees allocators clinging to maps that simply do not match the territory anymore. He’s blunt: the old lines dividing developed and emerging economies? They’ve vanished. Gone. Under the sheer weight of geopolitical and policy risks. Think about it. Laboy insists, and I quote, “If I describe a market to you and I tell you this market has geopolitical risk, it has political uncertainty. It has social polarization. It's got policy risk... Today, it describes any market that's out there.” Static investment frameworks? They are dead. Survival requires underwriting managers who can navigate this structural disruption. This is not business as usual. And that structural disruption? It’s hitting software multiples directly on How I Invest. Aram Verdian points out that AI has entirely scrambled all prior exit benchmarks. Entirely. Non-AI software companies? They are stranded. Stuck in a valuation collapse. These legacy SaaS businesses are caught in what he calls a ‘cis-apocalypse.’ They must demonstrate massive growth acceleration just to avoid brutal recalibrations. It’s a direct threat. This means the liquidity timeline is stretching to its breaking limits. The stark truth: as Verdian states, “the average unicorn is over 12 years old in the US.” Twelve years. That’s the new normal. Your old maps? Irrelevant.

Gut-driven sales destroys value

The second major theme this week screams: unstructured, reactive growth strategies are actively destroying value. It’s a silent killer. Clayton Christensen's data suggests up to 90 percent of M&A deals underperform. Ninety percent! On M&A Science, Andrew Morbitzer lays the blame squarely on reactive corporate development teams. What do they do? They wait for inbound banking pitches, then backward-rationalize a strategy. It's a recipe for disaster. To avoid this value destruction, buyers have to build strategic M&A hypotheses first. You’ve got to actively hunt the exact assets that fit your thesis, ignoring the reactive noise completely. No human in the loop, just data. Organic growth faces the exact same scaling trap. NetSuite's Sam Levy points out that rapid revenue expansion frequently hides a fragile sales machine. Think about your portfolio. When targets suddenly feel harder to hit, when leaders are managing by gut instinct, the initial hustle has expired. It's gone. Levy argues that GTM leaders must shift from what he calls “chaoticness into a cadence first.” Building a predictable operating rhythm replaces reliance on individual heroics with structured, repeatable systems. No more chaos. Just cadence.

Aram Verdian

Aram Verdian, on How I Invest, drops a metric that defines the massive backlog in venture capital liquidity. He’s talking about how AI is reshaping the entire space and what it means for the lifespan of these massive private companies. This is what he said: “Today if anything the liquidity in venture is further stretched out, the average unicorn is over 12 years old in the US.” That’s a flashing red light for anyone involved in private markets. It means longer holds, deferred exits, and intense pressure on valuations, demanding a total rethink of your portfolio construction.

Luis Laboy

Luis Laboy, speaking on Capital Allocators, delivered a timeless reminder for allocators staring at a herd-mentality private markets environment. He was challenging listeners to break free from conventional wisdom, especially in a world where geopolitical risk is rampant. Here’s his take: “There's no premium in consensus thinking, right?” That’s a direct challenge to the comfortable. It’s a call to move beyond the crowd, to seek out and underwrite true alpha, not just follow the money. Consensus thinking will only net you consensus returns, and right now, that's not good enough.

Sam Levy

Sam Levy, from NetSuite, made a bold prediction on Private Equity Funcast about the future C-suite, specifically how software engineering is no longer the default path to the top. He sees a massive shift occurring as product building becomes commoditized. Listen to this: “90 to 95 percent of all next round of CEOs will come out of sales or marketing.” That’s a seismic shift. It means the critical value driver in your portfolio companies is no longer just building great tech; it's about mastering how to sell it, how to tell its story. Chief storytellers, chief revenue officers. That’s your next CEO.

The bottom line

So, here’s the bottom line: whether you are underwriting a new GP, closing a tuck-in, or scaling your software portfolio, the era of flying on instinct is over. It’s gone. The market demands more. The winners are building structured, predictable machines that can navigate both geopolitical upheaval and AI disruption. No more reactive plays, just intentional, data-driven strategy. That’s The Carry. See you next Sunday.