The 12-Year Unicorn & The Death of Gut-Driven Sales

THE CARRY

1. Cross-Podcast Themes

Historic valuation and risk models are failing as technology and geopolitics scramble the baseline

Luis Laboy at the Hewlett Foundation sees allocators clinging to maps that no longer match the territory. The old lines dividing developed and emerging economies have vanished under the weight of geopolitical and policy risks. He insists that “If I describe a market to you and I tell you this market has geopolitical risk, it has political uncertainty. It has social polarization. It's got policy risk... Today, it describes any market that's out there.”▶ 37:28 (play from 37:28) Static investment frameworks are dead, and survival requires underwriting managers who can navigate structural disruption.

That structural disruption is hitting software multiples directly on How I Invest. Aram Verdian points out that AI has entirely scrambled prior exit benchmarks, leaving non-AI software companies stranded in a valuation collapse. These legacy SaaS businesses are caught in what he calls a 'cis-apocalypse,' where they must demonstrate massive growth acceleration just to avoid brutal recalibrations. The liquidity timeline is stretching to breaking limits as “the average unicorn is over 12 years old in the US.”▶ 1:44 (play from 1:44)

Trust and raw transparency are winning deals over polished transactional pitches

A massive acquisition fell apart for Andrew Morbitzer when a target's founder finally admitted, “I don't think I can do this. I just don't trust you.”▶ 48:41 (play from 48:41) Morbitzer notes that the best founders flip this dynamic by volunteering the ugly truths upfront and offering radical transparency in diligence. They share internal systems to the point that “people were sharing information that was above and beyond what we were asking,”▶ 50:37 (play from 50:37) which destroys buyer skepticism instantly.

LPs are playing a similar long game to secure access to top venture managers. Aram Verdian explained that Accolade Partners wants to be the absolute first call a new GP makes. They do this by rolling up their sleeves early to help co-draft LPAs and build operational infrastructure. The goal is to create “vulnerable, highly connected relationships”▶ 58:44 (play from 58:44) where a GP feels comfortable calling at 11 p.m. to talk through severe conflicts of interest, rather than hiding them from their capital base.

Unstructured, reactive growth strategies are destroying value at scale

Clayton Christensen's data suggests up to 90% of M&A deals underperform. On M&A Science, Andrew Morbitzer lays the blame squarely on reactive corporate development teams who wait for inbound banking pitches before backward-rationalizing a strategy. To avoid value destruction, buyers have to build strategic M&A hypotheses first and actively hunt the exact assets that fit, ignoring the reactive noise completely. Watch full episode

Organic growth faces the exact same scaling trap. NetSuite's Sam Levy points out that rapid revenue expansion frequently hides a fragile sales machine. When targets suddenly feel harder to hit and leaders are managing by gut instinct, the initial hustle has expired. He argues that GTM leaders must shift from "chaoticness into a cadence first," building a predictable operating rhythm that replaces reliance on individual heroics with structured systems. Watch full episode

2. Best Of the Week

Capital Allocators: Luis Laboy got promoted to partner just 12 months after nearly being fired because he finally absorbed his boss's sharpest feedback: “You're trying to be right rather than make money. And our job is to make money.”▶ 9:11 (play from 9:11) Read more.

How I Invest: Aram Verdian explains that Accolade mandates venture managers secure a 10%+ initial ownership stake to guarantee that a multi-billion dollar exit can single-handedly return the entire fund. Read more.

M&A Science: Andrew Morbitzer warns that investment bankers are incentivized purely by closing fees, pointing out that “bankers make good money because often they're trying to pull something out of nothing.”▶ 22:15 (play from 22:15) Read more.

Private Equity Funcast: NetSuite's Sam Levy predicts a massive shift in the C-suite, noting that “90 to 95% of all next round of CEOs will come out of sales or marketing”▶ 1:02:25 (play from 1:02:25) now that software creation is largely commoditized. Read more.

3. Most Quotable

"Today if anything the liquidity in venture is further stretched out, the average unicorn is over 12 years old in the US."

Aram Verdian on How I Invest · July 2026. A stark metric defining the massive backlog in venture capital liquidity.

"There's no premium in consensus thinking, right?"

Luis Laboy on Capital Allocators · July 2026. A timeless reminder for allocators staring at a herd-mentality private markets environment.

"90 to 95% of all next round of CEOs will come out of sales or marketing."

Sam Levy on Private Equity Funcast · July 2026. A bold prediction that software engineering is no longer the default path to the top as product building commoditizes.

Bottom Line: Whether you are underwriting a new GP, closing a tuck-in, or scaling your software portfolio, the era of flying on instinct is over—the winners are building structured, predictable machines.