Private Credit Debt Wall Is Moving to 2028
Houlihan Lokey's Tuck Hardie explains why LP liquidity demands will finally crack amend-and-extend deals ahead of the 2028 debt wall.
Amend and Pretend: Private Credit’s Hidden Defaults (w/ Tuck Hardie, Houlihan Lokey)
With Devin Mathews, William Tuck Hardie · Wednesday, November 11, 2026
Devin Mathews speaks with William Tuck Hardie, Managing Director in Houlihan Lokey's Financial Restructuring Group, about why corporate defaults remain deceptively low despite persistent macro chaos. They break down the mechanisms of liability management exercises (LMEs), amend-and-extend transactions, and payment-in-kind (PIK) interest, explaining how private credit and private equity fund dynamics incentivize can-kicking ahead of the 2028–2030 debt wall.
Key takeaways
- Borrowers and private credit lenders are pushing debt maturities out to 2028 and 2030 to bypass volatility around the US presidential election. Read more →
- Liability management exercises shifted from sponsor-driven priming battles to defensive lender pacts, with creditor cooperation agreements emerging across syndicated loans within the past three years. Read more →
- Pure mathematical finance dictates that when debt is impaired by a single penny, equity value is zero, yet direct lenders routinely leave wiped-out sponsors in full operational control. Read more →
- William Tuck Hardie of Houlihan Lokey explains that formal defaults stay rare because private credit lenders and private equity sponsors are both fundraising and refuse to mark down impaired capital. Read more →
4 articles from this episode
Lender Co-Op Agreements Are Halting Sponsor Priming Plays
Houlihan Lokey's Tuck Hardie explains how creditor co-ops curb aggressive sponsor LMEs ahead of the 2028-2030 debt wall.
Why Direct Lenders Leave Busted Equity in Charge
Direct lenders keep underwater PE sponsors running impaired portfolio companies to avoid operational workouts ahead of the 2028-2030 debt wall.
Why Private Credit Defaults Remain Artificially Low
Houlihan Lokey's Tuck Hardie explains how amend-and-extend deals hide private credit losses ahead of the 2028 to 2030 debt wall.
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