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11 quotes from 1 episode on Odd Lots, each with a timestamped link to the source.
Don Wilson states that the compute market requires standardized futures contracts to manage hardware depreciation risks. The capital concentrated in major chips like the Nvidia B200 provides enough volume to anchor these new financial tools.
Compute futures could list as early as November 9 if regulators close the open comment period.
“Yeah, so so right now there's a a comment period that's open. The the CFTC extended it. You know, if they don't do anything, then then, you know, the futures can get listed November 9th.”
Financial markets will eventually introduce tradeable derivative contracts based directly on AI output tokens.
“The other thing is that eventually, and you know, we may be getting close, you'll be able to trade futures contracts on the output, on the tokens themselves.”
Fast-growing technological sectors experience natural shifts in their growth rates over time.
“Any new thing that's growing this fast is not going to grow at a constant rate, it's not going to grow at a, you know, the first derivative isn't going to be constant, the second derivative isn't going to be constant.”
From Don Wilson: CoreWeave's Debt Problem Is a Missing Futures Market
Standardized contracts will track flagship hardware releases. Operators using alternative silicon will trade on a basis against these major benchmark chips.
“I mean, first of all, the amount of money going into, you know, just H100s or just B200s is large enough to support a single futures market.”
From Don Wilson Says GPU Futures Only Need Nvidia Benchmarks
“Now, in addition to that, these other things are very correlated. And so, you know, people will be able to trade a basis on these things versus whatever it is.”
From Don Wilson Says GPU Futures Only Need Nvidia Benchmarks
“Yeah, but it's rapid, but not that rapid, right? And and, you know, probably not going to launch a futures contract for every single one. You're going to launch futures contracts for the ones that are the major ones.”
From Don Wilson Says GPU Futures Only Need Nvidia Benchmarks
Index builders collect on-demand pricing data from the distributed neocloud market to meet the 2013 international regulatory standards for financial indices.
“Silicon Data, that team has done an amazing job of collecting massive amounts of data from, you know, and it's focused on on-demand compute from neoclouds.”
“So so IOSCO is the, I don't know, it's the kind of group of international regulators that I I think in 2013 came up with a best practices approach for indices.”
“Well, here, I mean I do think that it's highlighting the the massive need for risk management products.”
From Don Wilson: CoreWeave's Debt Problem Is a Missing Futures Market
“That is that and that is why these futures need to exist, because, you know, nobody knows what the value of a B200 will be four years from now, five years from now.”
From Don Wilson: CoreWeave's Debt Problem Is a Missing Futures Market
“…you go and rent GPUs, you pay the on-demand price.”
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