The Carry archive.
Every edition of The Carry. The week in private equity, from the shows the industry actually listens to.
Deal models fail the moment they meet operational reality.
Why PE operators are secret-shopping targets, stripping out financial engineering, and cutting out bankers.
The AI infra trade cracks, the 5-year hold dies
Plus: Why Invesco refuses to lend on data centers, and how AI code generation is breaking the software diligence playbook.
The $3.5T balance sheet trap and why software PE paused
AI models are breaking legacy SaaS moats, leaving buyout funds sitting on uncalled capital.
Mega-funds kill the 10-bagger
Why $1B+ buyout funds can't produce 10x returns, and the mathematical death of LP fund selection.
The 2.5x exit hurdle, AI token blowouts, and underwater common equity
Why senior partners are forcing exits at 2.5x, plus how uncontrolled token consumption is destroying enterprise budgets.
Peak-cycle hangovers, generalist traps & retail capacity
Why 8% preferred hurdles are destroying management alignment, plus the structural ceiling on private equity scaling.
The Carry: The 100-Day Plan Is Dead
Why general partners are moving value creation to the pre-close window, plus putting AI on the IC.
The death of the automatic 5-year exit
Plus: Advent's AI investment committee observer, and why the 10-year venture fund is structurally broken.
Add-ons lose their premium, the 10-year fund cracks
Plus why AI is killing rote legal diligence and a reality check on majority buyout board governance.
The integration premium, HALO assets, and AI's firm taste
Why buyers are refusing cobbled-together add-ons, the flight to hard assets, and how AI codifies fund culture.
Forcing AI adoption through comp, and cross-border M&A traps
Why standard buy-and-build playbooks fail in emerging markets, and how top allocators compete on mindshare rather than check size.
Banker incentives, split industrial rents, and fund-size creep
Why AI is bifurcating industrial rents, the penalty for scaling fund sizes, and the exact reason 90% of M&A deals fail.
The 12-Year Unicorn & The Death of Gut-Driven Sales
Plus: Why 90% of M&A fails, and how proactive founders use raw transparency to win deals.
The software valuation gap, walking away post-LOI, and AI's second-order plays
Public buyers are beating private equity by manufacturing their own effective multiples.
Weaponizing deal structure, the safe asset illusion, and AI models
Plus: Why the "widest moat" strategy actually stunts growth, and how venture investors limit adverse selection.