Why Shifting Goals Mid-Campaign Destroys Decisive Wins
Sarah Paine contrasts Desert Storm and the Korean War to show how expanding your objectives mid-campaign turns cheap victories into disasters.
Sarah Paine — Why wars are so difficult to end
With Sarah Paine · Sunday, September 27, 2026
Naval War College historian Sarah Paine examines the strategic dynamics of war termination, explaining why wars are easy to enter, difficult to conclude, and rarely end on the initiator's desired terms. Drawing on Carl von Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, she analyzes the Russo-Japanese War, the Korean War, both Gulf Wars, and World War I to illustrate the concepts of culminating points, limited versus unlimited objectives, and the pathologies of regional escalation and counter-insurgency.
Key takeaways
- In the 1991 Gulf War, George H.W. Bush locked down strict objectives in National Security Directive 54, refusing calls to march on Baghdad after liberating Kuwait. Read more →
- Carl von Clausewitz defined the "value of the object" as the political value of a specific goal. Local defenders fighting for survival almost always hold a higher value of the object than distant attackers. Read more →
- Carl von Clausewitz divided conflicts into limited wars (fought for specific bargaining leverage) and unlimited wars (fought for complete regime change). Read more →
- Wars rarely conclude on the initiator's preferred terms because leaders fail to calculate when their military leverage peaks and when regional escalation will swallow their gains. Read more →
4 articles from this episode
Why Asymmetric Conviction Beats Sheer Power
Historian Sarah Paine explains how victory-denial insurgencies and the value of the object exhaust superior invading forces.
Sarah Paine on Limited War Objectives and the Death Ground Trap
Historian Sarah Paine explains why unlimited wars fail on Sun Tzu's death ground and how limited objectives allow clean exits.
Sarah Paine: How to Know When a War Cannot Be Won
Naval War College historian Sarah Paine explains her Pre-War Strategic Matrix to evaluate conflicts, alliances, and exit strategies before fighting.
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