Why Lula Defeated Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil
James Bosworth explains how Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro through WhatsApp groups and why winning round one doomed the challenger.
James Bosworth on What Comes After Lula's Stunning Win
Political risk analyst James Bosworth joins Odd Lots to analyze Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's unexpected runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential election and explain why prediction markets failed so drastically. The discussion also covers the shifting political dynamics in Venezuela following María Corina Machado's return, the challenges facing any future democratic transition, and how regional leaders are navigating relations with the Trump administration.
Key takeaways
- Global voters lean anti-incumbent, keeping Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stuck near 45 percent support throughout early polling. Read more →
- Prediction markets priced Flávio Bolsonaro's win probability between 80% and 87%, treating a close race as a near certainty. Read more →
- Lula da Silva defeated Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's runoff election, defying prediction markets that miscalculated how commodity revenues would shield the Brazilian economy. Read more →
3 articles from this episode
Prediction Markets Hit 87 Percent for Bolsonaro and Lost
James Bosworth explains why prediction markets and pollsters missed Lula's 4-million-vote victory over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil.
James Bosworth: Why Latin American Politics Follows Oil and Trump
James Bosworth explains why global commodity shocks and Donald Trump's trade pressure dictate Latin American politics far more than ideology.
More Odd Lots episodes
- An Election Day Special With Nate SilverNov 8 · 5 articles
- The $300 Billion Structured Notes Market Is BoomingNov 8 · 4 articles
- What Wall Street Really Thinks About the AI Trade NowNov 1 · 5 articles
- PHP2Shell Won't Be the Last Big AI Cybersecurity RiskNov 1 · 3 articles