James Bosworth on What Comes After Lula's Stunning Win
Political risk analyst James Bosworth joins Odd Lots to analyze Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's unexpected runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential election and explain why prediction markets failed so drastically. The discussion also covers the shifting political dynamics in Venezuela following María Corina Machado's return, the challenges facing any future democratic transition, and how regional leaders are navigating relations with the Trump administration.
- Global voters lean anti-incumbent, keeping Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stuck near 45 percent support throughout early polling. Read →
- Prediction markets priced Flávio Bolsonaro's win probability between 80% and 87%, treating a close race as a near certainty. Read →
- Lula da Silva defeated Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's runoff election, defying prediction markets that miscalculated how commodity revenues would shield the Brazilian economy. Read →