What the top podcasts are saying about Prediction markets.
Prediction markets came up in 4 of 106 episodes (4%) in the four weeks to Oct 11, about the same share as in the earlier weeks (5%).
Share of episodes, four weeks at a time
The 4 episodes behind the newest bar
- Ken Griffindor School of Market Wizardry, Supper Intelligence, GDP per GWTBPN · week ending Oct 4 · said it twice
- Jensen vs NYT, New Model Reactions, Saudi EVs, You Can See EverythingTBPN · week ending Sep 27 · said it 5 times
- Meta Connect Reactions, Zuck's Beer Pong Controversy, ClusterMAX 3.0, New Bentley EVTBPN · week ending Sep 27 · said it 5 times
- John Arnold Joins, 4 Tech Arguments (Number 3 Will Shock You)TBPN · week ending Sep 27 · said it 5 times
What the shows said about Prediction markets
Key takeaways from our write-ups that name it, newest first, no more than two from one show. Each links to the full write-up.
Robinhood is rolling out the first prediction markets in the United States pegged directly to corporate earnings metrics like EPS, revenue, and delivery numbers.
Vlad Tenev on Robinhood's Agentic Trading Architecture · TBPN · week ending Oct 4Prediction market pricing on Polymarket already reflects high odds of a Democratic takeover across both chambers, prompting the hosts to form an on-platform prediction squad.
Why the 2026 Midterms Are a Collision Course for Capital · All-In Podcast · week ending Oct 4Real-time probability data from prediction markets acts as an automated trigger for equity trades, risk management rules, and alerts across multi-asset portfolios.
How AI Agents Turn Prediction Markets Into Trading Triggers · TBPN · week ending Sep 27Coinbase launched an internal prediction market product that reached a $100 million revenue run rate within months of going live.
Brian Armstrong on Prediction Markets and Opinion Trading · No Priors · week ending Sep 13Prediction market Kalshi saw its valuation jump from $22 billion in May to $40 billion, sparking talk of society's "casinoization" by investors.
Kalshi's $40B Bet: The Primal Desires Driving Absurd Valuations · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · week ending Jul 5
Earliest mentions in our archive
The first episode from each show that said it, oldest first. The matched words are marked.
“…from being kind of this one-off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events…”
“…nothing like like we were looking at like the prediction markets on the trial and we were like oh it's 50/50. Okay so…”
Mike Isaac (NYT) Joins, Earnings Review, Beautiful Data Centers, Coatue is Land Maxxing
“…could short US equities that are relying on oil. I could buy the prediction market that the straight's going to…”
How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is…
“…place where traders can do it everything in one spot including prediction markets too uh and they can do that in more…”
Coinbase’s Everything Exchange: Agentic Finance, Stablecoins & Tokenization with CEO Bria…
“…I don't trade, but one of the projects I sort of want to see how easy it is to build now is like an agentic trading bot and like paper trade on Kalshi or something and then like, go do a bunch of academic research, find where people speculate that there might be mispricing and then like,…”
Most recent mentions
The newest episodes that count toward the chart, no more than two from one show.
“…moment the past couple of weeks. Um, prediction markets have obviously been been going gang…”
Ken Griffindor School of Market Wizardry, Supper Intelligence, GDP per GW
“…being just go as deep as we can. What's the house philosophy on prediction markets? Partner, roll your own, stay…”
Jensen vs NYT, New Model Reactions, Saudi EVs, You Can See Everything
“…controversial. TVPI verse DPI. The one looks like a prediction market, right? And the one's real. Like I I could say…”
The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
“…interest in the other big kind of online betting prediction market player poly market and they're clearly saying this…”
Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for Sa…
“This is no way this is real. Anybody can write a prediction market, I guess. Hey, what's the what's the uh…”
OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, S…
Which shows say it
| Show | Last four weeks | All weeks counted |
|---|---|---|
| TBPN | 4 | 16 |
| 20VC with Harry Stebbings | 0 | 3 |
| All-In Podcast | 0 | 2 |
| No Priors | 0 | 1 |
More trends
Episodes in the newest four weeks:
How we count. An episode counts when its transcript says “prediction market”, “Polymarket” or “Kalshi” at least twice; plurals count too. We count a shortened re-upload of an episode we already have only once, and we skip the sponsor reads and show promos we can spot. A model marks them in every transcript and our code checks each mark against the words; we also skip the lines around phrases like “brought to you by” and any passage a show reads word for word in three or more episodes. The share is the counted episodes divided by all episodes from the tech, business and science shows we cover in the same four weeks, so a busy month of releases does not raise it by itself. The mix of shows does change from month to month, and one daily show can move a number. Weeks run Monday to Sunday, and the week in progress is left out until it ends. The chart starts with the week of March 30, 2026, when our archive became steady. A few older episodes can still appear under the earliest mentions, and some weeks have gaps. Transcripts are automatic captions, so we also match the spellings they use. The counts cover only the shows we summarize. Download the counts (JSON) or CSV.