10+ hours of podcasts, in 5 minutes.
Specific calls about the future, made on the shows we summarize, in the speaker's exact words, with a link to the moment it was said. Most have a deadline. Once the outcome is clear, we check what actually happened and grade the call, with the evidence linked.
Calls with a deadline still ahead, soonest first.
“I don't think this will be the last of the exits that we see out of MSL over the next even one or two months.”
North Korea’s Secret US Workforce, Canceling the SaaSpocalypse, MSL’s Latest Exits | Diet…
“In fact, within 6 months or so, all the Frontier models are going to have Mythos level cyber capability.”
OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide…
“It's just it's really important to understand that the Chinese models are going to have these capabilities within approximately 6 months.”
OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide…
“And so I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental 4 to5 billion of revenue on top of what I I've seen analysts estimates in the mid20s.”
Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
“I think that uh the Millennium Prizes will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week.”
OpenAI Cracks Navier-Stokes, Tech Trailers, AI Jobs Apocalypse on Hold | Diet TBPN
“Uh Russia Ukraine I think it's going to settle out this year. I think there's a lot of motivating factors to get it settled out this year.”
“And I think this year it's going to be a 700 billion dollar capex sector.”
“I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will hit that forecast of 10x this year exiting the year. Call it roughly 100 billion of ARR.”
Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
“…where does it see $65 or $45? And I would say on on a per barrel basis, and I think it's more likely to see 45 than 65.”
“If you put these two together I predict that this is going to move SpaceX xAI and cursor to the front of the coding leaderboard within 12 months.”
SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike
“And by the way, I'll just say it again, when Tesla and SpaceX merge and we have all things Elon and Elon Corp, okay, which will happen probably by the end of the year. Maybe it'll happen in the middle of next year.”
Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
“This year they're talking about a $ 1.5 trillion budget. I don't think they'll quite get there but quite large.”
“…certainly in 2027 you will hit like a full human touring test with speech. You'll be able to take a phone call from an AI system on your phone and I'll be able to fool you guys. I'll be able to have like a human call you and a robot call you and I don't think you guys will be able to tell the difference.”
“Something I've been thinking about memory is DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler capex next year.”
Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quar…
“The amount of money that's being invested when you think about just the hyperscaler investment today, if you add up hypers scale investment this year, it's around 70% of total corporate US capex. It's an enormous number and it's probably going to increase next year too.”
“I I think almost certainly there will be an insider trading scandal on the Love Island prediction markets by the end of uh 2027 is my prediction.”
5.6 Stories, Meta Bull Case, Phia Affiliate Drama, Movies and Mansions
“And over the next few months, that energy is going to be released into the atmosphere. And that will absolutely 99% confidence that will make the upcoming year the hottest year on record by far that humans have ever experienced or at least that we've experienced in recent history where we didn't have data going going back a long time.”
Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI…
“It belongs to Rio Tinto and BHP, the largest mining companies in the world in the western world, but within two years, the grade is going to drop to 0.4 of 1%.”
Robert Friedland on the World's Monumental Shortage of Copper
“So we're adding 2.5 trillion a year. We'll add 10 trillion during this second uh Trump term.”
Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer…
“Now we're about $1,000 a kilogram, just over that in right today. Uh but that's come down about 10x in the last 10 years. Um on the current trajectory with Starship in particular, I would expect it the launch cost come down there in 2 to 3 years.”
The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel
“The cost of tokens, Freeberg, is going to go down 90% a year for the next 3 years. You're going to be able to buy a thousand times as many tokens that are more intelligent because you're going to have free options.”
AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget L…
“I believe that majority majority of uh uh enterprise workloads will actually be on open source models uh in 3 years for sure.”
Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder
“Let's take NeoClouds. Neoclouds right now, there's a whole bunch of them. I think at least half of them go away within 36 months, but that and if there's an an economic disruption, a lot of them go away right away.”
The AI Bubble WILL Burst | Should we be fearful of Chinese Open-Source | Jerry Murdock
“…this decade we will see quantum supremacy uh results across multiple industries you know we know how to build cubits we know how to error correct cubits we now have algorithmics right against uh quantum and you know now it's just about engineering scale.”
Former Intel CEO on What Went Wrong, What's Next + Lovable CEO on the Real Promise of Vib…
“…there are going to be more lawyers in the next 5 years than we have today because we've made it easy to generate legal content. But it has not gotten any easier to actually get any of that approved by any court system or file a patent or any of the things that law actually ends up relating to.”
“Then the next big thing is going to happen around 2030 to 2032. And that's really where Social Security doesn't have any money to pay anymore. And I think during that era is also when a lot of the states are going to become bankrupt. We're not going to be able to pay their obligations.”
Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer…
“I think this will stand as the high water mark of private M&A for a decade. There. I'll take the other.”
Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Can…
“40% of all government spending is going to people over the age of 65. It's going to be 50% within 10 years.”
Male Roles, Obligations and Options for Building a Fulfilling Life | Scott Galloway
“…but I think no question within 10 years most compute will be putting in space, which to give you a sense is a lot of money, like trillions, and um will be bigger than any of the other space businesses today.”
The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel
“…every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10 years. And it's starting today.”
AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget L…
“Well, my take, my prediction actually is in a world where robotics, drones, AI is is everywhere. Uh my guess is that in 10 years time, we're actually going to have more Dashers doing doing deliveries, not less.”
Building an Autonomous Delivery Experience with DoorDash Co-Founders Andy Fang and Stanle…
Every grade links to public evidence of what happened.
“My contrarian belief number one is I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.”
“SpaceX, Andro, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI. I think two of those file and it is going to be gang busters.”
“…you know for 2026 I think we're going to see some massive M&A. It doesn't matter to me how it occurs but I do think we're going to see a 50 billion plus deal.”
“And by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts, possibly 75 to 100 basis points.”
“…it's one of those deals that makes sense for both sides, which is why I think it'll close, right? Which is different than saying it makes full financial sense.”
Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Can…
No firm date was given. We grade these once the outcome is clear.
“…it is crazy that I'm in a world where I think they're going to ship CyberCap before Roadster cuz they announced Roadster a decade ago.”
Jobs Boom, Astra Reactions, Cybercab Roll Out, The Dyson Debate
“And that's where you're going to see, I will predict it now. They're going to ban Whimos in New York, Boston, DC, and they're going to limit them with licenses.”
Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
“And you know what? Mandami and New Jersey are going to win these lawsuits. I predicted now.”
Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
“…but more courts are going to weigh in. I I bet that goes to the Supreme Court. And so we'll see, you know, the future of of sports contract.”
Half a Trilly, AI Text Watermarks, Paramount Threatens to Bounce, Leo Defends Chilean Fro…
“We're probably going to get a rate increase, not a rate cut.”
Another False Start: PitchBook's H1 2026 Private Equity Data (w/ Steven Buibish)
“I think 11 Labs 11 Labs is going to be a public company dude…”
Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
“It makes sense. It makes a lot of sense. and there's going to be a congressional investigation of this. It does make sense cuz it is in their interest…”
Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datac…
“The other thing is this is probably not the final clearing price. I think the price is probably another 10 to 15% higher from here.”
Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datac…
“Is the biggest AI video business in the world. Uh it's doing 500 million in Q1 AR wise. Um, it's clearly going to go public on the Hong Kong stock exchange soon.”
Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds…
“I don't think the US is going to do an open source ban. Um I I I I would be surprised by that.”
Fable Unbanned, Lab Nationalization, End of Paper-Based Retirement, SpaceX Phone
“I would expect to see just like we saw the ad supported Kindle. I think we'll see the ad supported meta glasses.”
Cannes Recap, Meta Gambling Goggles, AI Restrictions, Apple Price Hikes
“It's our fintech provider Revolute which has stolen the show and I think on the next round will be considerably more valuable than Robin Hood.”
How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is…
“And he's not selling. He's under a one-year lockup. And I predict that he'll hold on for much longer than that because creating SpaceX is his life's work.”
World's First Trillionaire, Anthropic Fable Banned, The New Oligarchs, Iran Peace Deal
“I think Google's underrated. I think it's going to be the first 10 trillion dollar company in our lifetime. I think they have all the assets that are that are needed to make this successful.”
Palo Alto Networks CEO: "AI Found 5 Years of Bugs in 6 Weeks"
“Well, you know, I I think the copper price is easily going to double from here. I mean, I've seen I've seen malibdinum go from a dollar a pound to $33 a pound. So, a double is no big deal.”
| Show | Calls | Graded | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| All-In Podcast | 28 | 4 | – |
| 20VC with Harry Stebbings | 8 | 1 | – |
| TBPN | 8 | 0 | – |
| How I Invest | 2 | 0 | – |
| Huberman Lab | 1 | 0 | – |
| My First Million | 1 | 0 | – |
| No Priors | 1 | 0 | – |
| Odd Lots | 1 | 0 | – |
| Private Equity Funcast | 1 | 0 | – |
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